Subject: Re: New Century Network From: Vin Crosbie Date: Thu, 20 Apr 95 10:05:21 PDT
How the Web Was Won
Subject: Re: New Century Network From: Vin Crosbie Date: Thu, 20 Apr 95 10:05:21 PDT
To: online-news@marketplace.com
X-Mailer: Chameleon - TCP/IP for Windows by NetManage, Inc.
Message-Id: 
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII
Sender: owner-online-news@marketplace.com
Precedence: bulk
Status: RO
X-Status: 

Eric Meyer wrote:
>The secret, Rosalind, is that they've just created what amounts to an 
>online news cartel. Play their game or go find your own news to use 
>as a lure to get readers, whom advertisers will follow. And the new
>online consortium has sufficient clout to control AP pricing. If AP
>suddenly becomes prohibitively expensive to non-cartel members -- i.e., 
>to "non-contributing" members like Prodigy -- where will the commercial 
>online networks look for breaking-news content? UPI?

This isn't the first time you've hoisted conspiratorialist theories about how 
newspapers could control the AP for oligaristic purposes. As a former UPI and 
Reuters hand who competed with AP for the years, I would love it if that 
theory were true. However, I'm going to debunk it:

Just like with any other business, AP's costs are rising and it needs to 
increase revenues to cover those costs. It could demand more money from its 
existing membership, but in times of 30%-40% rates hikes for newsprint its 
members (notably your 'cartel') won't stand for increases of more than 
inflationary percentages. So, AP must win new business. Yet, AP has held 100% 
market shares of U.S. newspapers and TV stations since approx. 1990 and has 
been ineluctibly losing radio station business ever since the Reagan Admin. 
rescinded the FCC mandate that every licensed broadcaster air some news. This 
means its only recourse is to gain nontraditional media business (Prodigy, 
etc.) The AP has been pursuing this course these past few years and nearly 
1/3rd of AP's revenues today come from non-newspaper and non-broadcast 
business.

Yet, your theory casts the AP as a lackey to a cartel that will force it to 
apartheidize membership into cartel and non-cartel members, prohibitively 
raising its prices to the latter. This would lose membership and existing 
revenues and starved the AP of sources of potential new revenues. 

Indeed, this New Century Network would permit its papers to be less reliant 
on the AP: They'll be able to exchange stories for publication through their 
own network, rather than rely on AP wire copy or the AP's transmission 
facilities.  

>These folks even own a big chunk of Netscape.
Thinking that their 11% equity will allow them to control Netscape?

>OPEC could only dream of being so well established.
Sigh.

Rosalind Resnick is right both that this effort may be starting a bit late 
and that there remains a lot more to be done if national advertising is to be 
attracted to online newspapers. The New Century Network, at best, may create 
a defacto national SAU for online newspapers. At worst, it is a circling of 
old media wagons on a threatening New Media frontier.

--------------------------------------------------------
Vin Crosbie                          voice(212) 207-9290
ProductView Interactive, Inc.         fax (212) 207-9295
One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza           vin@productview.com
New York, NY 10017                    
--------------------------------------------------------



From owner-online-news@marketplace.com Thu Apr 20 16:13:15 1995
Received: from marketplace.com by cnj.digex.net with SMTP id AA29646
  (5.67b8/IDA-1.5 for ); Thu, 20 Apr 1995 16:13:13 -0400
Received: (from majordom@localhost) by marketplace.com (8.6.12/8.6.12) id KAA24357 for online-news-outgoing; Thu, 20 Apr 1995 10:29:03 -0600
Received: from witch.witchcraft.com (witch.win.net [204.215.209.2]) by marketplace.com (8.6.12/8.6.12) with SMTP id KAA24352 for ; Thu, 20 Apr 1995 10:29:00 -0600
Received: by witch.witchcraft.com id AA19770
  (5.65/1.35 for ); Thu, 20 Apr 95 12:30:29 -0400
Received: by win.net!harrison;  Thu, 20 Apr 1995 12:26:56
X-Mailer: WinNET Plus, v3.0
Message-Id: <2877@harrison.win.net>
Reply-To: rosalind@harrison.win.net (Rosalind Resnick)
To: meyer@newslink.org, online-news@marketplace.com
Subject: Re: New Century Network From: Vin Crosbie Date: Thu, 20 Apr 1995 12:26:56
How the Web Was Won
Subject: Re: New Century Network From: Vin Crosbie Date: Thu, 20 Apr 1995 12:26:56